Hawaiian Volcano Update: Kīlauea Summit Eruption Awaiting Ep 43; 1975 Halapē Tsunami - March 5, 2026

Now 18 days into the post-episode 42 pause of Kīlauea’s summit eruption, the volcano has recovered 75% of the ground tilt lost during the event, slowed by an additional mild deflation cycle this past week. These interruptions have come earlier and more frequently than in past episodes, both complicating the projection of the next lava fountains and highlighting the possibility of bigger changes in the eruption’s dynamics. That said, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory currently projects a forecast window of March 10 to 15 for the start of episode 43 fountaining, subject to change as more data becomes available. Glow continues from both vents, with the south vent more consistent and the north vent intermittent.

The National Weather Service forecasts southerly winds bringing deep tropical moisture over the island starting early next week, coincident with the start of the eruption forecast window. The combined effects of wind and rain on the upcoming episode are hard to predict, but nearby residents should be prepared for the possibility of tephra fallout, swirling vog, or acidic rain.

Since the end of episode 42, both vents continue their typical degassing of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of SO2 per day, which while low-level for the current activity, is still much greater than industrial standards and impactful to downwind residents. For the expected episode 43, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/. 

Deep earthquakes continue around 21 miles or 33 kilometers deep around Kīlauea summit along previously noted magma pathways into the roots of the volcano, as they sometimes do during magma recharge. Maunaloa continues to produce signals of refilling magma under its summit, consistent with its long-term post-eruption filling pattern in which the caldera is slowly stretching and rising. 

In a special hour-long segment this week, we share another partial recording of Volcano Awareness Month’s “Remembering Halapē” from January 24, 2026. This segment presents a dramatic reading of survivor accounts arranged by Jackie Pualani Johnson in collaboration with the Pacific Tsunami Museum. As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, annotating the presentation on-screen as we go and discussing live viewer questions.