Hawaiian Volcano Update: Awaiting Kīlauea’s Ep.50, Fake AI Disasters Yearly Review - June 25, 2026

Episode 50 of Kīlauea’s ongoing summit eruption is expected anytime in the next few days, on pace for “between today June 25 and Saturday June 27 with Friday June 26 most likely” according to the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. Although still awaiting precursory overflows, magma has risen within the vents over the past week, intensifying night-time glow and causing periodic “large flames and intermittent sprays of fine spatter caused by gas jetting.” A monitoring overflight yesterday spotted “magma roiling” within a newly visible “bifurcated structure within the north vent,” while the south vent was also active but obscured by fume.

“Moderate to breezy trade winds can be expected through the weekend and likely into the first half of next week” according to today’s National Weather Service discussion. Thus the burst of volcanic emissions and tephra at the start of the next episode should have limited impact on nearby communities. However, trades can carry the vog substantial distances across the south side of the island, wrapping around to the Kona coast. Both during and between episodes, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/. 

Several notable earthquakes this past week highlight ongoing geologic processes on Hawaiʻi Island, with no major impact on its volcanoes. On June 22, a magnitude 3.8 quake about 3 miles deep reflects ongoing movement on the southwest flank of Maunaloa. Similarly, several events reflect ongoing movement of Kīlauea’s south flank, highlighted by a magnitude 3.6 event at a depth of 5 miles on June 24, a 3.2 at a depth of 4 miles on June 23, and a 3.1 also 4 miles deep on June 20. Finally, a magnitude 3.1 at a much greater depth of 13 miles also occurred under southwestern Maunaloa today, a likely aftershock of the magnitude-6 earthquake on May 22, “related to stress from the weight of the island on the underlying rigid mantle.” None of the events were directly related to short-term volcanic processes.

We briefly summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory as well as our broader community. 

This week’s special presentation is our yearly review of fake AI-generated disaster imagery, which took another step forward in 2026 particularly in the realm of video. We will show the progression of AI-generated content over the past 3 years.