Hawaiian Volcano Update: Vog Concentrated by Storms Ahead of Kīlauea’s Ep. 55 - September 3, 2026
As Hawaiʻi Island watches Hurricane Lowell pass 400 miles to the south and Hurricane Karina 1000 miles to the east, we fortunately sit in a pocket of limited impact expected compared to other parts of the State, while still recovering from Lala. However, locally shifting winds in the middle of all this weather have already started to concentrate vog along the Kona coast and will likely bring vog to other parts of the island over the weekend and into the coming week.
Between episodes, the vents continue to emit roughly 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of SO2 per day, which while low-level compared to the output during fountaining episodes on the order of 200,000 tonnes, is still much greater than industrial standards. Both during and between episodes, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/.
Meanwhile, Kīlauea has been recharging underground at a slower rate than usual, but resembling the irregular pattern interrupted by deflationary periods evident since episode 51. Before entering such a slowdown this morning, the volcano had recovered 61% of the ground tilt decrease during episode 54. USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models forecast the episode to occur between September 7 to 12 (Monday to Saturday), “if inflation follows the prior patterns.” So, the potential exists for episode 55 to occur during light, variable winds, increasing the threat of intense volcanic emissions and tephra to nearby communities. However, if fountain heights follow their recent lower pattern, peaking around 500 feet or 150 meters, less tephra impact would also be expected. Finally, additional slowdowns in inflation could further delay the episode’s arrival.
Otherwise, the volcano has been darker than usual, with only occasional glow and flames visible from the north vent over the past week, with combined with tremor signals “suggests that incandescent magma remains relatively deep in the vent and possibly crusted over between gas release bursts.” Aerial photographs show the south vent filled in with tephra and lava from episode 54, while both the north vent and the newer west vent can be seen vigorously degassing in daylight webcam views. As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory as well as our broader community, annotating the presentation on-screen and discussing live viewer questions as we go.
