Hawaiian Volcano Update: Pre-Episode 35, Patterns of Episodes 1-34 of Kīlauea Summit Eruption - October 16, 2025
The 34th pause of Kīlauea’s summit eruption continued this past week, even as precursory activity to episode 35 began this morning. Intermittent strong glow and spattering from both vents led to a series of overflows starting this morning as we approach the forecast window for episode 35, between October 17 to 22. As of 1pm today there have been 7 south vent overflows ahead of episode 35, and while the same pattern is not certain, the build-up to episode 34 included over 100 overflow-drainback events. The current pause is in its 15th day, contending with post-episodes 29, 30, and 32 for the longest intermission (16 days) since the eruption began almost 10 months ago. Increased activity building to lava fountaining is expected at both vents in the next few days, with USGS-HVO updates stating, “the open nature of the south vent suggests it is still likely to play a prominent role in the next episode after staging a dramatic comeback in episode 34.”
With the expected onset of vigorous activity, a large increase in emission of volcanic gas is also expected, even as the vents continue passively venting gas in the periods between fountains. Light to moderate trade winds are expected through the weekend along with scattered to numerous showers according to local forecasters, potentially limiting the impact of gas and tephra fallout in nearby. As with every summit eruption in the last 5 years, vog and tephra are currently the most common hazards for island residents and visitors. The usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/.
In a special segment this week nearing the end of this lengthy pause, we review patterns of episodes 1 to 34 through time-lapse videos and data spanning the whole eruption. We divide the episodes into 4 groups: episodes 1-4 with the opening burst flooding the crater and an evolution to two main vents, episodes 5-17 where a repeating pattern is established and maximum fountain heights grow to reach over 1000 feet, episodes 18-28 after a reset and recovery of the pattern building to high fountains for a second time, and episodes 29-34 with increasing changes at the vents while maintaining high eruption rates and building to a high fountain for the third time.
All eruptive activity has been confined to Kīlauea’s summit caldera within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, with no increased lava threat to people. There continue to be no significant changes on either of Kīlauea’s rift zones. Maunaloa continues to inflate its established post-eruption pattern, including a very slight uptick in earthquakes in recent months. As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, annotating the presentation on screen as we go and discussing live viewer questions.
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