Hawaiian Volcano Update: Kīlauea Swells, Quakes Wax & Wane, October 26, 2023
[Note: Brief video update this week due to upcoming Town Hall in Pāhoa on emergency preparedness, which we will stream following the update.]
Both Kīlauea's summit and the area immediately south continue to rise as a result of building underground magma, maintaining the potential to erupt in the coming weeks or months. Earthquakes south of the caldera ramped up again this past week, peaking on Monday accompanied by stronger tremor. “Unrest may continue to wax and wane with changes to the input of magma into the area” according to the USGS-HVO.
The rapidly rising ground surface across a wide area, combined with two centers of inflation — both in Halemaʻumaʻu and in the area south of the caldera — create an uncertain, dynamic situation within the volcano. The USGS-HVO Information Statement released at the peak of this week’s unrest details several possibilities.
“It is unclear how long unrest will continue. It is not possible to say with certainty if current unrest will lead to an eruption. Although it is not possible to forecast an exact outcome, here are three possible scenarios that could play out in the coming days to weeks:
1. Magma continues to accumulate in the region south-southwest of Kīlauea’s summit, but eventually stops with no eruption.
2. Magma continues to accumulate in the region south-southwest of Kīlauea’s summit, with an eventual eruption inside the caldera, similar to recent eruptions at Halema‘uma‘u. In this scenario, we would expect to see accelerating rates of ground deformation and earthquakes beneath the caldera 1-2 hours before lava reaches the surface.
3. Magma continues to accumulate in the region south-southwest of Kīlauea’s summit, with an eventual eruption outside of the caldera, to the south or southwest. In this scenario, we would expect to see earthquake locations migrating away from the caldera, as they did prior to the December 1974 eruption, followed by accelerating rates of ground deformation and earthquakes 1-2 hours before lava reaches the surface.
No unusual activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone. “
Gas emissions remain at background levels for the volcano around 125 tonnes of SO2 per day, but can still affect sensitive individuals in downwind areas. Typically gas emissions are at their worst at the start of each eruption, thus now is the best time for those exposed to prepare.
Maunaloa's deep earthquakes ramped back up this week, accompanied by a small drop in summit tilt. Most events cluster around 25 miles or 40 kilometers deep, with shallower adjustments activating yesterday. Within its shallow, near-surface system, the mountain otherwise continues quietly filling following its 2022 eruption, and remains at the lowest USGS warning level.
As usual we review the monitoring signals, imagery and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, annotating the presentation on screen and discussing live viewer questions as we go.
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