Hawaiian Volcano Update: Kīlauea Summit Eruption Post-Ep 42 & Deep Earthquakes - February 26, 2026

In the 11 days of pause since episode 42 of Kīlauea’s summit eruption, the volcano has recovered just over half of the ground tilt lost during the event, slowed by 4 cycles of mild deflation. These interruptions have come earlier and more frequently than in past episodes, both complicating the projection of the next lava fountains and highlighting the possibility of bigger changes in the eruption’s dynamics. That said, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory currently projects a forecast window of March 6 to 13 for the start of episode 43 fountaining, subject to change as more data becomes available. Glow continues intermittently from both vents, with the south vent stronger and more frequent while the north vent produces occasional flames.

Trade winds were common this past week, although variable winds on February 22 & 23 blew volcanic emissions over East Hawaiʻi. Since the end of episode 42, both vents continue their typical degassing of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of SO2 per day, which while low-level for the current activity, is still much greater than industrial standards and impactful to downwind residents. For the expected episode 43, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/. 

The changing winds continue to swirl vog over much of Hawaiʻi Island, with more to come this weekend as the next winter front approaches from the northwest according to the latest National Weather Service forecast. “A more typical and breezy trade wind pattern then looks to return by the middle of next week,” just before the episode 43 forecast window from the USGS. An extended build-up to episode 43 might result in an increased chance of an eruption during westerly winds, although it’s too soon to tell. 

Deep earthquakes have been occurring around 21 miles or 33 kilometers deep around Kīlauea summit for over a week, along previously noted magma pathways into the roots of the volcano, as they sometimes do during magma recharge. Earthquakes of magnitude 3.1 & 2.8 occurred north of Maunaloa’s summit this past week, consistent with its long-term post-eruption filling pattern in which the caldera is slowly stretching and rising. As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, annotating the presentation on-screen as we go and discussing live viewer questions.