Hawaiian Volcano Update: Kīlauea Eruption Post-Ep. 45; 1868 Eruptions Conclusion - April 30, 2026
In the week since Kīlauea summit eruption’s episode 45, the volcano has recharged roughly halfway towards an anticipated episode 46, which the USGS-HVO currently forecasts within the window of May 5 to May 9. Both the north and south vents continue to glow at night, with flames common from both vents over the past week. Another swarm of roughly 100 earthquakes beneath the summit occurred on Tuesday before calming the next day, following swarms that occurred in the build-up and near the end of episode 44. Similar to other earthquake swarms during the build-up phase to episodes, the latest sequence has caused the volcano to temporarily deflate, as magmatic pressure disperses to fill nearby underground cracks associated with the quakes. These events have become common within the last few months, such that the USGS-HVO states that “fluctuations in tilt are normal during eruptive pauses.”
Trade winds have dominated over the past week, pushing volcanic emissions southwest towards communities including Pahala, Naʻalehu, and Ocean View. While southerly winds become rarer towards the mid-year, the National Weather Service models suggest another “cold front and upper-level trough approaching the islands from the northwest” by early next week, although its strength and impact are still uncertain. As such, the possibility of south winds during the upcoming episode 46 and tephra impacts to nearby communities cannot be discounted.
In the meantime, both vents continue to emit roughly 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of SO2 per day, which while low-level compared to the output during fountaing episodes on the order of 200,000 tonnes, is still much greater than industrial standards and impactful to downwind residents. Both during and between episodes, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/.
Taking advantage of the lull in activity, we conclude our recap of 1868 eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunami tonight with a focus on Maunaloa’s southwest rift eruption, the final stage of the sequence, as well as the lasting impacts and consequences of this landmark series of events. As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory as well as our broader community, annotating the presentation on-screen as we go and discussing live viewer questions.
