Hawaiian Volcano Update: Awaiting Kīlauea’s Ep.53; 2018 Recovery Progress - August 6, 2026
Episode 53 of Kīlauea’s ongoing summit eruption is expected as soon as this weekend, between Saturday, August 8 and Wednesday, August 12, according to today’s update from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. The National Weather Service forecast discussion today notes “increasing trade wind speeds Friday through this weekend” along with increasingly unstable conditions making “pockets of heavier rainfall … possible for the Big Island” through Monday. The weakening inversion layer is expected to allow moisture up to 15,000 feet above sea level, into which the eruptive plume will insert significant heat. Thus, nearby residents should be aware of the potential of lava fountains during unstable weather creating localized effects including tephra fallout, heavier rain, and thunder. “A typical stable trade wind pattern will return by Tuesday of next week,” meaning better conditions and more limited impacts should the episode occur towards the end of the current forecast window.
Recent trades and light southerly winds have brought vog to south and west Hawaiʻi Island ahead of the weekend, widely dispersing the 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of sulfur dioxide produced each day in between eruptive episodes. Trades can carry the vog and finer particles such as Pele’s hair substantial distances across the south side of the island, wrapping around to the Kona coast. Both during and between episodes, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/.
The night following episode 52, a new crack system opened above the south vent in a burst of flaming gas, joining the glowing tephra piles and cooling lava flows in brightening night-time views. Over the past week, flames and brightening glow has been noted in association with gas pistoning, with a lot of action at the new crack system and the north vent, while the south vent itself only rarely produces flames. It remains to be seen if these changes will impact the vents for episode 53; previous cracks and fissures surrounding the vents proved short-lived.
Chemical analysis of lavas shared in the weekly Volcano Watch article by the USGS-HVO suggests the possibility of a decrease in magma supply following episode 43, with cooler magma signals noted in the following 3 episodes. Since then, signs of hotter magma are returning, though inconsistent, and correlate to growing fountain heights from episodes 46 to 48, suggesting the growth in fountain heights may continue. Other factors influencing fountain heights besides the magma chemistry itself include conduit geometry, lava viscosity, and magma supply rate.
Maunaloa continues to recharge with magma, inflating over the past month in line with recently released survey data that shows uplift and spreading away from the summit caldera over the previous year. However, earthquake rates and other monitoring signals remain at typical levels for this stage in the process, and the volcano remains at alert level “normal.”
In a special segment, we recap the current state of recovery progress in Puna following the 2018 eruption, as we mark the 8-year anniversary of its conclusion. As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory as well as our broader community, annotating the presentation on-screen as we go and discussing live viewer questions.
