Hawaiian Volcano Update: Awaiting Kīlauea’s Ep.51, Live Fake or Real AI Game - July 9, 2026
After a few days' delay, episode 51 of Kīlauea’s ongoing summit eruption is currently expected “between July 11 and 15”, although additional delays are still possible. After a first cycle last week, a second shift to deflationary tilt also lasting about 2 days further delayed the forecast for the next onset of lava fountaining. “Vent glow has been continuous since the end of episode 50” from the south vent, while the north vent has been intermittent but strengthening over the past week. On a Tuesday overflight, USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory “crews spotted an incandescent lava surface deep within the south vent, but no lava was visible in the north vent at that time.” Slow subsidence of the lava surface continues in the western center part of the crater, similar to many previous episodes.
Thankfully once again, “breezy trade winds” are expected through the weekend and into the early part of next week by the National Weather Service, meaning the burst of volcanic emissions and tephra at the start of the next episode should have limited impact on nearby communities. However, trades can carry the vog and finer particles such as Pele’s hair substantial distances across the south side of the island, wrapping around to the Kona coast. Both during and between episodes, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/.
Earthquakes around Kīlauea summit have quieted this past week, while elsewhere around Hawaiʻi Island only two events exceeded magnitude 3, the first registering a 3.2 at a depth of 4.5 miles on the south flank of Maunaloa near Waiʻōhino. The second, a magnitude 3.3, occurred at a substantial depth of 76 miles below the Kona coast, with little effect on the island’s surface. As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory as well as our broader community, annotating the presentation on-screen as we go and discussing live viewer questions.
This week’s live update features the live debut (beta test) of our newly developed “Fake or Real AI” game. Five categories of natural disasters, whats real? Whats AI generated fake? Can you tell the difference, come play along and compete against chat. Works on mobile and pc, you just need an internet connection and you’re in. Nothing to register for, winner gets an AI gen generated dog in tribute to them in next week’s like.
