Hawaiian Volcano Update: Awaiting Kīlauea’s Ep.44, 1946 & 1868 Tsunami Anniversaries - April 2, 2026
Kīlauea’s ongoing eruption has remained paused for 23 days following episode 43, its longest lava-free interval since the eruption began in December 2024, and it looks likely to extend longer as the current USGS forecast window for episode 44 is April 6 to 14. Unfortunately there is a possibility of a third storm system impacting Hawaiʻi “beginning in the middle of next week and extending into the weekend” according to the National Weather Service, with winds becoming southeasterly by Monday [April 6] and southerly by Wednesday. This brings the real potential for tephra to impact nearby communities during the expected episode 44 high lava fountains, similar to episode 41, and perhaps even during the 63rd annual Merrie Monarch Festival which runs April 5 to 11, one of the busiest times around Hilo.
Both of Kīlauea’s summit vents have been glowing “strongly and nearly continuously” in recent days, with a “weakly spattering lava pond about 30 meters (100 feet) down in the south vent” spotted during helicopter monitoring on March 31. They continue to emit robust gas plumes, with typical degassing values of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of SO2 per day, which while low-level for the current activity, is still much greater than industrial standards and impactful to downwind residents. Both during and between episodes, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/.
This week marks anniversaries for two fatal earthquake and tsunami sequences, which we review in our special presentation. On April 2, 1868, following events on Maunaloa several days earlier, a magnitude 7.9 earthquake in Kaʻū along with its generated local tsunami claimed 77 lives in the midst of a 16-day crisis. We spend most of our time on the first half of this landmark sequence, replaying part of our presentation from 2024. Also, on April 1, 1946, 159 people perished in Hawaiʻi (including 96 in Hilo) from a tsunami generated by a magnitude 8.6 earthquake in Alaska, which we also briefly recap. As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory as well as our broader community, annotating the presentation on-screen as we go and discussing live viewer questions.
