Hawaiian Volcano Update: Awaiting Kīlauea Eruption’s Ep.48, M6.0 South Kona Quake - May 28, 2026
The expected episode 48 of Kīlauea’s ongoing summit eruption continues to be delayed at the time of this writing, now 14 days since episode 47. Natural variations in the rate of inflation, including a small deflation cycle, have led the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory to repeatedly push back the forecast window for the next fountaining phase, which is currently open between today and Saturday, May 30, although still subject to further delay. No precursory activity has been noted so far, although a brief, small burst of spatter was observed from the north vent last night.
According to recent National Weather Service discussion, “locally breeze trades will …weaken through the weekend” during which episode 48 is expected. Trade winds generally carry volcanic emissions and tephra to the southwest into the closed area of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, reducing the impact to nearby communities, although a pattern similar to episode 47 could also be possible. In that instance, wind speeds around Kīlauea summit dropped into the evening, allowing the volcanic plume to rise vertically and causing sparse tephra up to 3 inches or 5 centimeters in size to fall at overlooks in the National Park. The plume rose to 20,000 feet or 6,000 meters above sea level, and catching upper level winds from the southwest, carried smaller volcanic particles (ash and Pele’s hair) to communities several miles to the northeast.
During the onset of each episode, emissions are at their peak on the order of 200,000 tonnes of SO2 per day, and can be carried substantial distances across the south side of the island, wrapping around to the Kona coast under trade wind conditions. Both during and between episodes, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities
Highlighting this past week, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck south Kona at 9:46 PM on Friday, May 22, originating about 14 miles or 23 kilometers beneath Hōnaunau and Nāpōʻopoʻo, with “no apparent impact on either Mauna Loa or Kīlauea volcanoes” according to the USGS-HVO. However, damage was widespread across the region, with Civil Defense classifying at least 5 homes “destroyed” among nearly 150 properties reporting damage. Other impacts beyond structural and foundation damages included power outages, rockslides that blocked two roads for several hours before being cleared, numerous water catchment tank failures, and household and commercial items falling from walls and shelves. Shaking was widely felt widely across the State as far as Kauai, with over 7,100 felt reports submitted to the USGS in 24 hours.
As a special bonus, we include historical context of similar earthquakes in the region. As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory as well as our broader community, annotating the presentation on-screen as we go and discussing live viewer questions.
