Hawaiian Volcano Update: Awaiting Episode 49 of Kīlauea’s Summit Eruption - June 11, 2026
Episode 49 of Kīlauea’s ongoing summit eruption is still expected to occur this weekend between Saturday and Monday, “most likely June 13-15,” although if the recent “slow inflation continues at the summit, it could push the forecast further back” according to the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. Lava was visible at shallow depth within the south vent during a HVO monitoring overflight on June 9, and night-time webcam views have shown strong glow, periodic flaming, and occasional spattering over the past week. No precursory overflows have occurred so far in the build-up to the expected lava fountains, and yet there have been no deflationary cycles in the build-up, as was the case with the delayed episode 48.
Today’s National Weather Service discussion suggests “trade winds will gradually weaken through Saturday” allowing for localized sea and land breeze cycles which could facilitate airborne impacts to nearby communities if episode 49 arrives during such a phase. “Moderate to locally breezy trades will return early next week,” which would typically limit impacts to the closed area of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. “A slight weakening and veering of the trade wind flow may unfold for the latter part of the week,” which could also cause community impacts similar to episodes 47 and 48, during which HVO noted sparse tephra up to 3 inches or 5 centimeters in size falling at overlooks in the National Park and on nearby Highway 11. Volcanic plumes have also risen to 20,000 feet or 6,000 meters above sea level, and catching upper level winds from the southwest, carried smaller volcanic particles (ash and Pele’s hair) to communities many miles to the northeast.
During the onset of each episode, emissions are at their peak on the order of 200,000 tonnes of SO2 per day, and can be carried substantial distances across the south side of the island, wrapping around to the Kona coast under trade wind conditions. Both during and between episodes, vog and tephra remain the most common hazards for island residents, and the usual precautions and preparations apply, especially for those with respiratory sensitivities – more information at https://vog.ivhhn.org/. All erupted lava has been contained within Kīlauea summit, and there have been no significant changes to the volcanoʻs rift zones.
A magnitude 4.7 earthquake 24 miles or 39 kilometers deep below and offshore of Pāpaʻikou late Tuesday night, the latest in a series of flexural events “due to bending of the Pacific plate from the weight of the Hawaiian island chain, a common source of earthquakes in this area … [ with ] no apparent impact on either Mauna Loa or Kīlauea volcanoes” according to USGS-HVO. The area of Kīlauea summit which experienced a flurry of quakes and ground uplift surrounding the end of episode 48 has remained relatively quiet ever since.
As usual, we summarize the monitoring signals, imagery, and reports available courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory as well as our broader community, annotating the presentation on-screen as we go and discussing live viewer questions.
